Case-Shiller Records Continuing Declines in Home Prices

Data released Tuesday morning by Standard & Poor’s for its S&P/Case-Shiller home price index showed declines in November of 3.6 percent for the 10-city composite and 3.7 percent for the 20-city composite when compared to price levels from a year earlier.

Analysts were expecting a year-over-year drop in the range of 3.2 to 3.4 percent, holding constant with the annual declines reported for October of -3.2 percent for the 10-city composite and -3.4 percent for the 20-city measurement.
Eighteen cities’ annual returns were in negative territory in November. Detroit and Washington, D.C. were the only exceptions. At -11.8 percent, Atlanta continued to post the lowest annual results.
In addition to both composites, 13 of the 20 metros included in S&P’s study saw their annual returns worsen compared to October’s data. New York and Tampa saw no change in annual returns in November, while Charlotte, Cleveland, Denver, Minneapolis, and Phoenix saw their annual rates improve.
“Despite continued low interest rates and better real GDP growth in the fourth quarter, home prices continue to fall,” said David Blitzer, chairman of the index committee for S&P. “The trend is down and there are few, if any, signs in the numbers that a turning point is close at hand.”
Both the 10- and 20-city composites of the closely watched index posted declines of 1.3 percent between October and November. Among the 20 cities tracked, 19 saw average home prices slip month-over-month. The only positive was Phoenix, where prices rose 0.6 percent from October to November.
Stiff says in the monthly data too, Atlanta stands out in terms of relative weakness. Home prices there were down 2.5 percent over the month of November, after having fallen by 5.0 percent in October.
Atlanta, along with Las Vegas, Seattle, and Tampa all reached new cycle lows in November, according to Stiff.
The 10-city and 20-city composite readings are holding above their cycle lows hit last spring by +1.0 percent and +0.6 percent, respectively.
Measured from their June/July 2006 peaks through November 2011, the decline for both the 10-city composite and 20-city composite is -32.9 percent.
As of November 2011, S&P says, average home prices across the United States are back to the levels they were at in mid-2003.
For the hard-hit metros of Atlanta, Cleveland, Detroit, and Las Vegas, average home prices are below their January 2000 levels.