Wednesday, May 26, 2010

Pending Home Sales on an Upswing

Pending home sales increased again in March, affirming that a surge of home sales is unfolding for the spring home buying season, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

The Pending Home Sales Index,* a forward-looking indicator based on contracts signed in March, rose 5.3 percent to 102.9 from 97.7 in February, and is 21.1 percent above March 2009 when it was 85.0; this follows an 8.3 percent increase in February. The data reflects contracts and not closings, which usually occur with a lag time of one or two months.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said favorable affordability conditions have been working with the tax credit. “Clearly the home buyer tax credit has helped stabilize the market. In the months immediately following the expiration of the tax credit, we expect measurably lower sales,” he said. “Later in the second half of the year, and into 2011, home sales will likely become self-sustaining if the economy can add jobs at a respectable pace, and from a return of buyer demand as they see home values stabilizing.”

Pending home sales increased again in March, affirming that a surge of home sales is unfolding for the spring home buying season, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

The PHSI in the Northeast declined 3.3 percent to 75.1 in March but remains 27.2 percent higher than March 2009. In the Midwest the index increased 1.2 percent to 98.9 and is 18.5 percent above a year ago. Pending home sales in the South jumped 12.7 percent to an index of 121.2, which is 28.3 percent higher than March 2009. In the West the index rose 1.9 percent to 99.9 and is 8.8 percent above a year ago.

“Another encouraging sign is the improvement in the availability for jumbo and second-home mortgages,” Yun said. “As bank balance sheets strengthen, it is just a matter of time before lending of non-government-backed mortgages steadily opens up.”

The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing 1.1 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.

*The Pending Home Sales Index is a leading indicator for the housing sector, based on pending sales of existing homes. A sale is listed as pending when the contract has been signed but the transaction has not closed, though the sale usually is finalized within one or two months of signing.

The index is based on a large national sample, typically representing about 20 percent of transactions for existing-home sales. In developing the model for the index, it was demonstrated that the level of monthly sales-contract activity parallels the level of closed existing-home sales in the following two months. There is a closer relationship between annual index changes (from the same month a year earlier) and year-ago changes in sales performance than with month-to-month comparisons.

An index of 100 is equal to the average level of contract activity during 2001, which was the first year to be examined as well as the first of five consecutive record years for existing-home sales.

First quarter metropolitan area home prices and state home sales will be released May 11. Existing-home sales for April will be reported May 24 and the next Pending Home Sales Index will be on June 2; release times are 10 a.m. EDT.

Information about NAR is available at www.realtor.org. This and other news releases are posted in the News Media section. Statistical data, tables and surveys also may be found by clicking on Research.

Existing-Home Sales Continue to Improve in April

WASHINGTON (May 24, 2010) – Existing-home sales rose again in April with buyers motivated by the tax credit, improving consumer confidence and favorable affordability conditions, according to the National Association of Realtors®.

Existing-home sales1, which are completed transactions that include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, increased 7.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.77 million units in April from an upwardly revised 5.36 million in March, and are 22.8 percent higher than the 4.70 million-unit pace in April 2009. Monthly sales rose 7.0 percent in March.

Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the gain was widely anticipated. “The upswing in April existing-home sales was expected because of the tax credit inducement, and no doubt there will be some temporary fallback in the months immediately after it expires, but other factors also are supporting the market,” he said. “For people who were on the sidelines, there’s been a return of buyer confidence with stabilizing home prices, an improving economy and mortgage interest rates that remain historically low.”

Existing-Home Sales Continue to Improve in April

Existing-Home Sales Continue to Improve in AprilWashington, D.C., May 24, 2010 WASHINGTON (May 24, 2010) – Existing-home sales rose again in April with buyers motivated by the tax credit, improving consumer confidence and favorable affordability conditions, according to the National Association of Realtors®.
Existing-home sales1, which are completed transactions that include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, increased 7.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.77 million units in April from an upwardly revised 5.36 million in March, and are 22.8 percent higher than the 4.70 million-unit pace in April 2009. Monthly sales rose 7.0 percent in March.
Lawrence Yun, NAR chief economist, said the gain was widely anticipated. “The upswing in April existing-home sales was expected because of the tax credit inducement, and no doubt there will be some temporary fallback in the months immediately after it expires, but other factors also are supporting the market,” he said. “For people who were on the sidelines, there’s been a return of buyer confidence with stabilizing home prices, an improving economy and mortgage interest rates that remain historically low.”According to Freddie Mac, the national average commitment rate for a 30-year, conventional, fixed-rate mortgage rose to 5.10 percent in April from 4.97 percent in March; the rate was 4.91 percent in April 2009.
Total housing inventory at the end of April rose 11.5 percent to 4.04 million existing homes available for sale, which represents an 8.4-month supply2 at the current sales pace, up from an 8.1-month supply in March. Raw unsold inventory is 2.7 percent above a year ago, but remains 11.6 percent below the record of 4.58 million in July 2008.
“Although inventory levels remain above normal and much of the gain last month was seasonal, the housing price correction appears essentially over,” Yun said. “In fact, a majority of the markets have seen price gains recently. A return to old-fashioned responsible lending and buying will help the housing market avoid disruptive and painful bubble-bust cycles.”
The national median existing-home price3 for all housing types was $173,100 in April, up 4.0 percent from April 2009. Distressed homes accounted for 33 percent of sales last month, compared with 35 percent in March.
NAR President Vicki Cox Golder, owner of Vicki L. Cox & Associates in Tucson, Ariz., said buyer traffic is mixed. “It looks like the level of home sales that close in May and June will stay elevated, but many buyers remain in the market even without the tax credit,” she said. “Some Realtors® tell us they are very busy with clients who are entering the market now as a result of improved conditions, while others are welcoming a slowdown from frantic market conditions in recent months.
“Buyers are focused on finding the right house and taking advantage of favorable affordability conditions. For many buyers, owning a home is a lifestyle choice. They want a place of their own to raise a family, build memories, and be part of a larger community,” Golder said.
A parallel NAR practitioner survey4 shows first-time buyers purchased 49 percent of homes in April, up from 44 percent in March. Investors accounted for 15 percent of transactions in April, down from 19 percent in March; the remaining sales were to repeat buyers. All-cash sales stood at 26 percent in April; they were 27 percent in March.
Single-family home sales rose 7.4 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.05 million in April from a pace of 4.70 million in March, and are 20.5 percent above the 4.19 million level in April 2009. The median existing single-family home price was $173,400 in April, up 4.5 percent from a year ago.
Single-family median prices rose in 18 out of 20 metropolitan statistical areas reported in April from a year ago; six of the areas experienced double-digit increases. In data recently reported for the first quarter, 91 out of 152 metros saw price gains.
Existing condominium and co-op sales jumped 9.1 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 720,000 in April from 660,000 in March, and are 42.3 percent above the 506,000-unit pace in April 2009. The median existing condo price5 was $171,000 in April, which is 0.6 percent below a year ago.
Regionally, existing-home sales in the Northeast surged 21.1 percent to an annual level of 1.09 million in April and are 41.6 percent higher than a year ago. The median price in the Northeast was $243,000, up 2.1 percent from April 2009.
Existing-home sales in the Midwest rose 9.9 percent in April to a pace of 1.33 million and are 29.1 percent above a year ago. The median price in the Midwest was $146,400, up 5.8 percent from April 2009.
In the South, existing-home sales increased 8.6 percent to an annual level of 2.14 million in April and are 23.0 percent higher than April 2009. The median price in the South was $150,000, up 1.2 percent from a year ago.
Existing-home sales in the West fell 6.2 percent to an annual rate of 1.21 million in April but are 5.2 percent above a year ago. The median price in the West was $212,400, up 3.8 percent from April 2009.
The National Association of Realtors®, “The Voice for Real Estate,” is America’s largest trade association, representing 1.1 million members involved in all aspects of the residential and commercial real estate industries.
# # #
NOTE: NAR also reports monthly comparisons of existing single-family home sales and median prices for 20 select metropolitan statistical areas, which is posted with other tables at: www.realtor.org/research/research/ehsdata. For information on areas not included in the report, please contact the local association of Realtors®.1Existing-home sales, which include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, are based on transaction closings. This differs from the U.S. Census Bureau’s series on new single-family home sales, which are based on contracts or the acceptance of a deposit. Because of these differences, it is not uncommon for each series to move in different directions in the same month. In addition, existing-home sales, which generally account for 85 to 90 percent of total home sales, are based on a much larger sample – more than 40 percent of multiple listing service data each month – and typically are not subject to large prior-month revisions.
The annual rate for a particular month represents what the total number of actual sales for a year would be if the relative pace for that month were maintained for 12 consecutive months. Seasonally adjusted annual rates are used in reporting monthly data to factor out seasonal variations in resale activity. For example, home sales volume is normally higher in the summer than in the winter, primarily because of differences in the weather and family buying patterns. However, seasonal factors cannot compensate for abnormal weather patterns.
Single-family data collection began monthly in 1968, while condo data collection began quarterly in 1981; the series were combined in 1999 when monthly collection of condo data began. Prior to this period, single-family homes accounted for more than nine out of 10 purchases. Historic comparisons for total home sales prior to 1999 are based on monthly single-family sales, combined with the corresponding quarterly sales rate for condos.2Total inventory and month’s supply data are available back through 1999, while single-family inventory and month’s supply are available back to 1982 (prior to 1999, condos were measured quarterly while single-family sales accounted for more than 90 percent of transactions).3The only valid comparisons for median prices are with the same period a year earlier due to the seasonality in buying patterns. Month-to-month comparisons do not compensate for seasonal changes, especially for the timing of family buying patterns. Changes in the composition of sales can distort median price data. Year-ago median and mean prices sometimes are revised in an automated process if more data is received than was originally reported.4First-time buyer and distressed sales data are from the Realtors® Confidence Index.5Because there is a concentration of condos in high-cost metro areas, the national median condo price generally is higher than the median single-family price. In a given market area, condos typically cost less than single-family homes.Existing-home sales for May will be released June 22. The next Pending Home Sales Index is scheduled forJune 2; release times are 10 a.m. EDT.Information about NAR is available at www.realtor.org. This and other news releases are posted in the News Media section. Statistical data in this release, other tables and surveys also may be found by clicking on Research.

REALTOR® Magazine-Daily News-Housing Still Lacks Stable Funding

REALTOR® Magazine-Daily News-Housing Still Lacks Stable Funding

REALTOR® Magazine-Daily News-More People Are Choosing to Rent

REALTOR® Magazine-Daily News-More People Are Choosing to Rent

Tuesday, May 25, 2010

Mortgage Rates Decline

The financial turmoil in Europe is providing an unexpected windfall for American home buyers, as international money seeking a safe haven is flowing into the U.S., pushing domestic mortgage rates to the lowest levels of the year and back near 50-year lows.

Getty Images

A real estate agent leaves an open house for a home for sale in San Francisco. Falling mortgage rates could lift the U.S. housing market.

The housing industry had been bracing for months for a period of rising mortgage rates, triggered by the end of the Federal Reserve's $1.25 trillion mortgage-securities purchase program. Conventional wisdom held that mortgage rates would rise as the Fed pulled back from propping up the market.

Instead, many in the industry now say rates could drift as low as 4.5% this summer from 4.86% now, instead of rising to 6% as some economists projected, making for significantly lower payments for Americans buying homes or refinancing their mortgages.

Refinance business "exploded" last week, says Jeff Lazerson, chief executive of Mortgage Grader, a brokerage in Laguna Niguel, Calif. "It's schizophrenic. We all had this expectation of higher interest rates and no more refinances." He says he helped a borrower lock in a 30-year loan with a 4.25% fixed rate last week, the lowest in his 24 years in the business.

Editors' Deep Dive: Mortgage Business Gets a Shakeup

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Rates on 30-year mortgages averaged 4.84% last week, according to a survey by mortgage-insurance titan Freddie Mac. Rates were quoted late Friday at 4.86%, the lowest since December 2009, according to a survey by financial publisher HSH Associates, and down from a high of 5.27% for the week ended April 9. Rates on 15-year mortgages averaged 4.24% last week—the lowest since Freddie began its survey in 1991.

Economists largely attribute the decline in mortgage rates to the European debt crisis and new concerns about the global economy, which unleashed a massive wave of cash into U.S. bonds from investors around the world.

This buying pushed down yields on Treasury bonds. Because mortgage rates are closely pegged to yields on 10-year Treasury notes, which fell to 3.2% Friday, the decline in Treasurys pulled down mortgage yields. Typically, mortgage yields remain around 1.5 percentage points above yields on 10-year Treasury notes.

Falling mortgage rates can give a powerful lift to the housing market. A general rule of thumb holds that every one percentage point decline in mortgage rates is the equivalent of roughly a 10% reduction in the home price for the buyer. So, if the current rates hold, say economists, that could help stabilize prices and allow current homeowners to sell existing homes without substantial price cuts.

It isn't clear how much home-buying the lower rates will spur. Demand had fallen in recent weeks after buyers raced to close sales ahead of last month's expiration of an $8,000 federal tax credit for home purchases. Applications for new-purchase loans hit a 13-year low in the week ending May 14, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

Borrowers do face roadblocks. Underwriting standards are their strictest in a decade, and record numbers of borrowers are "underwater," owing more to the bank than their homes are worth. That has excluded large swaths of borrowers from getting loans at the new lower rates.

Still, lower rates could widen the pool of people who qualify for a mortgage, while others may find they qualify for a slightly larger loan. "They can buy the place with the extra bedroom or the swimming pool," says Jay Brinkmann, chief economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association.

Falling rates have encouraged some Americans to consider refinancing their existing mortgages to save money. A one-percentage-point decline in mortgage rates can cut $250 off the monthly payment on a $400,000 30-year fixed-rate mortgage, giving consumers cash they can use to spend.

[MRATES]

Richard Hunsinger plans to refinance two loans on his Potomac, Md., home into a new 15-year mortgage this week with a 4.37% rate. The 55-year-old dentist is worried that interest rates will eventually rise sharply, boosting the payment on his home-equity line of credit. His first mortgage, also a 15-year loan, currently has a fixed rate of 5.25%. And while the rate on his $240,000 home-equity loan is just 3.25%, it has risen as high as 8% in the past.

Rates "can't stay low forever," says Dr. Hunsinger. If they go up over the next year, "this will look like a really bright decision."

By historical standards, rates are incredibly low. Until 2003, rates on 30-year fixed-rate loans hadn't dipped below 5% since the 1960s. Rates fell to similar points throughout much of the past year as the government was helping to hold down costs for borrowers.

Nearly half of all borrowers with 30-year conforming fixed-rate mortgages have mortgage rates of 5.75% or higher and could reduce their rates by a full percentage point if they refinanced at current rates, according to investment bank Credit Suisse.

Many of those borrowers may have tried to refinance last year, only to find that they couldn't qualify. When rates fell to similar lows in 2003, refinance activity hit a record $2.9 trillion, compared to $1.2 trillion last year, according to Inside Mortgage Finance, a trade publication.

Now, more private investors are coming into the market for loans, offering better prices for securities containing mortgages with low rates than they were one year ago. That could lead banks and brokers to cut upfront origination fees, and borrowers who are able to refinance could find it cheaper to do so than last year.

"I'm calling people back and saying, 'Now it's worth it,'" says Michael Menatian, a mortgage banker in West Hartford, Conn.

—Prabha Natarajan contributed to this article

Write to Nick Timiraos at nick.timiraos@wsj.com

REALTOR® Magazine-Daily News-Existing-Home Sales Up 7.6% in April

REALTOR® Magazine-Daily News-Existing-Home Sales Up 7.6% in April

REALTOR® Magazine-Daily News-Owners Optimistic About Home Values

REALTOR® Magazine-Daily News-Owners Optimistic About Home Values

REALTOR® Magazine-Daily News-Survey: Economy Improving, Housing Lags

REALTOR® Magazine-Daily News-Survey: Economy Improving, Housing Lags

Monday, May 24, 2010

Real Estate Outlook: Mixed Messages


The housing market may be reverting back to its old pattern of sending mixed messages at least that's the way it looks from the latest numbers.

On the one hand, last week was outstanding for home builders.

Nationwide new home starts, which are a key indicator not only of where real estate is headed but of builder confidence levels, increased by 10.2 percent to hit their highest total since August of 2008.

On a regional basis, starts were even more impressive in some areas. The Northeast saw a huge jump of 24 percent for the month. The Midwestern states were up 17 percent, the South by 7 percent.

Only the Western region saw starts fall -- by 13 percent.

Some analysts attributed the sudden burst in building activity to rising sales of new homes by purchasers seeking to qualify for federal tax credits.

Those sales burned off unsold inventory, according to David Crowe, chief economist of the National Association of Home Builders, and allowed builders to get back to what they do best -- building more houses.

But there was a complication here: Permits for new single family homes dropped sharply in April, by nearly 11 percent.

How do you figure that? Well, probably the best explanation is that builders are playing it safe on pulling new permits for future starts. With unemployment still close to 10 percent, builders aren't totally sure about the strength and duration of the national economic recovery. They don't want to be stuck with excess production next year.

Meanwhile, there were some other sobering numbers indicating that the housing rebound is not going to simply go straight up, but is likely to move in fits and starts.

New applications for mortgages to purchase homes plunged by 27 percent last week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association.

Part of that can be explained by the fact that purchase applications ran high in the weeks leading up to the April 30th contract deadline for tax credit home purchases.

There were predictions that loan applications might take a tumble when the credits disappeared - and that's what we're seeing.

And finally, just to add to the mixed message theme, new national research from real estate data company CoreLogic found that home prices are rising in most markets, after nearly 3 years of negatives.

Nationwide, according to the CoreLogic Home Price Index, prices rose in the latest month by nearly two percent on average over year-earlier levels.

Prices in a handful of local markets, San Jose, Buffalo, Denver and San Diego among others, gained by more than double that rate.

Source: Kenneth R. Harney: May 24, 2010

REALTOR® Magazine-Daily News-Wholesalers Flip Houses, Distorting the Market

REALTOR® Magazine-Daily News-Wholesalers Flip Houses, Distorting the Market

REALTOR® Magazine-Daily News-Housing Prices Could Rise 12.4% by 2014

REALTOR® Magazine-Daily News-Housing Prices Could Rise 12.4% by 2014

REALTOR® Magazine-Daily News-Half of Owners Think Their Home Value Is Up

REALTOR® Magazine-Daily News-Half of Owners Think Their Home Value Is Up

REALTOR® Magazine-Daily News-Senate Passes Financial Reform Bill

REALTOR® Magazine-Daily News-Senate Passes Financial Reform Bill

Sunday, May 23, 2010

REALTOR® Magazine-Daily News-Commercial Real Estate Business Still in Slump

REALTOR® Magazine-Daily News-Commercial Real Estate Business Still in Slump

REALTOR® Magazine-Daily News-Foreclosures Hit Record High in First Quarter

REALTOR® Magazine-Daily News-Foreclosures Hit Record High in First Quarter

REALTOR® Magazine-Daily News-Now's the Time to Buy, Investment Firm Says

REALTOR® Magazine-Daily News-Now's the Time to Buy, Investment Firm Says

REALTOR® Magazine-Daily News-Mortgage Rates Continue to Drop

REALTOR® Magazine-Daily News-Mortgage Rates Continue to Drop

REALTOR® Magazine-Daily News-Fewer Buyers Consider Foreclosures

REALTOR® Magazine-Daily News-Fewer Buyers Consider Foreclosures

REALTOR® Magazine-Daily News-Senate Passes Financial Reform Bill

REALTOR® Magazine-Daily News-Senate Passes Financial Reform Bill