The national mortgage delinquency rate rose during the fourth quarter of 2011, TransUnion reported Tuesday, marking only the second time since the end of 2009 the Chicago-based credit bureau has recorded an increase in its quarterly assessment of past due mortgage payments.
The first was during the third quarter of 2011, with the succession signaling what could be a troubling trend in the making.
TransUnion calculates the mortgage delinquency rate as the percentage of borrowers 60 or more days behind on their payments, excluding those that are already in foreclosure.
The rate increased from 5.88 percent at the end of the third quarter to 6.01 percent as of the end of the fourth.
Between the third and fourth quarters of 2011, all but 13 states experienced increases in their mortgage delinquency rates, according to TransUnion’s study.
On a more granular level, 64 percent of metropolitan areas saw increases in mortgage delinquencies during the final three months of last year. The previous three months also had the distinction of increases in 64 percent of metros. That’s up from only 21 percent during the second quarter of 2011.
“To see that, quarter over quarter, fewer homeowners were able to make their mortgage payments is not welcome news. However, it was not unexpected,” said Tim
Martin, group vice president of U.S. housing in TransUnion’s financial services business unit.
Martin explained that there tends to be a natural seasonality – which was evident well before the recession – of higher delinquencies during the fourth quarter period of any year, perhaps because borrowers must balance holiday spending versus debt payments.
More intrinsic to the current conditions, Martin noted that on top of the seasonal flux, home prices continued to deteriorate in the fourth quarter of 2011 and unemployment remained stubbornly high.
“This combination leads to more negative equity in homes and reduced real personal income that can affect borrowers’ ability and willingness to pay their mortgages,” he said.
Martin does see some “more encouraging news” behind the numbers in TransUnion’s latest report – when looking at the data year-over-year, more homeowners are now making their mortgage payments on time, as evidenced by the 6 percent drop in the national delinquency rate since the fourth quarter of 2010.
“While it is certainly good to see the rate dropping, at this pace it will take a very long time for mortgage delinquencies to get back to normal,” Martin said.
By: Carrie Bay
The highest mortgage delinquency rates during the fourth quarter were found in Florida (14.27%), Nevada (12.08%), New Jersey (8.32%), and Arizona (7.50%).
States with the lowest mortgage delinquency rates included North Dakota (1.50%), South Dakota (2.45%), Nebraska (2.57%), and Alaska (2.77%).
TransUnion’s forecast calls for mortgage delinquency rates to drift downward marginally in 2012 as the economic environment begins to modestly improve.
In the meantime, however, the agency says the industry may see a quarter or two more of slightly elevated nonpayment rates as some consumers are not able to, or decide not to, repay their mortgage debt obligations in light of the uncertain economic outlook.
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