Mortgage Forecast

Santander reported a 21% decrease in gross lending between the first half of 2010 and H1 2011, a fall in £2.6bn. Barclays reported £7.6bn in gross mortgage lending for the first half of 2011, down on the £8.5bn it did in the first six months of 2010, a 10.6% decrease.Save 10% on select bathroom faucets at eFaucets.com. Use Coupon Save10 at Checkout.

Northern Rock reported gross mortgage lending of £1.5bn, down 25% from the £2bn reported in the first half of 2011.

The Council of Mortgage Lenders revised its gross mortgage lending forecast in June from £135 to £140bn for the year which the Association of Mortgage Intermediaries deemed as “unlikely to be achievable”. Mortgage Introducer spoke to various sources on whether the CML, in light of recent half-year results, would downgrade their forecast or remain true to their current prediction.

A spokeswoman at Barclays, said: “Despite experiencing a decrease in gross mortgage lending for H1 2011, our figures remain on plan and significantly above our stock share. H1 2011 saw the return of more lenders and aggressive competition in the market which has impacted lending figures.

“The CML’s figures may have been slightly optimistic due to the stagnant economy and lack of base rate movement so far this year. As this is now expected to continue throughout 2011, Barclays expects gross mortgage lending for 2011 to be broadly in line with that of 2010.”Moving Made Easy!

David Sheppard, managing director of Perception Finance, said: “On the basis that the market has had a bounce in the last month and a half, the CML will look to hold steady on their forecast for now.

“Primarily of course the forecast is lending over the course of the whole year and not just a couple of months. Whilst there might be some lenders where the lending volumes have declined, there are also going to be lenders where their lending volumes have increased within that time frame.

“Of course Santander was a very heavy player in the past year. If you’re comparing like for like with the lenders now in the market and being more aggressive, Santander and Barclays’ volumes are clearly going to go down whereas other lenders want a larger piece of the pie than they had before.

“There’s more competition now for that business. Even on our own figures, last year a very high percentage of all mortgage lending was placed with Santander, whereas this year it has been more balanced across all lenders. And, if anything, Santander has actually slipped down the order a little bit because of the fact that there are other lenders who want to compete more.

“Another factor is that Santander isn’t really in the Buy-to-let market which is another part of the market which has enhanced of late.

“While Barclays does buy-to-let mortgages, it is not overly competitive in that regard. So where buy-to-let is showing some recovery, those lenders that aren’t in that market will also see their percentages drop.Home Bargains! Sign up for your Free 7-day trial at RealtyTrac.”

 Source: Yuan Phoon