Thursday, December 8, 2011

What Will Be Hot in Home Interiors in 2012?

The design forecasts are rolling in for the new year and the predictions of what’s going to be popular in interior decorating in 2012.

According to Beasley & Henley Interior Design in Winter Park, Fla., here are some interior design trends to be on the lookout for in the upcoming year:

Hickory chair featuring hot 2012 trend of yellow and gray; Photo Credit: Beasley & Henley Interior Design

Homes go gray: All shades of gray will be making up more households, from warm grey to charcoal gray, through furnishings, window treatments, and artwork.

Yellow pops: Yellow can lift practically any room, according to Beasley & Henley Interior Design. Pairing yellow with gray can bring a trendy look to a home in 2012.

Photo Credit: Beasley & Henley Interior Design

Rustic: Furnishings from natural, reclaimed, and rustic wood are expected to catch on. “Finishes on these rustic pieces will range from wire-brushed to bleached oak to gray washes,” according to Beasley & Henley Interior Design.

Photo Credit: Beasley & Henley Interior Design

Repurposed lighting: Reclaimed pieces that are turned into lamps and lighting pieces is expected to continue its wave of popularity in 2012.

The industrial look: The industrial look is also gaining traction, such as repurposed, industrial occasional tables or side carts.

Lower seating: Chairs and sofas are sitting lower to the ground. More home furniture manufacturing companies are debuting lounge chair seating lower than the standard 20’’ off the floor. They’re introducing more products at 17-18’’ off the floor–possibly to fit in smaller homes.

Oversized photography, such as in Sepia or computer-enhanced, will dominate the look of artwork in the coming year. Photo Credit: Beasley & Henley Interior Design

Supersized artwork: Artwork continues to get bigger with oversized photography dressing up interiors with black and white, Sepia, or standard pictures.

By Melissa Dittmann Tracey, REALTOR® Magazine

Report Predicts Drop in Delinquencies Next Year

The number of borrowers behind on their mortgage payments is expected to drop sharply by the end of next year, according to a new report released by TransUnion.

Mortgage delinquency rates reflect the ratio of borrowers 60 or more days behind on their loan payments. Rates are expected to rise to about 6 percent during the first three months of 2012 before dropping to 5 percent by the end of the year, TransUnion forecasts. At its peak in the fourth quarter of 2009, mortgage delinquencies stood at a 6.89 percent rate.

An improving jobs picture, along with a stabilizing housing market, are expected to be the main contributors in curtailing mortgage delinquencies in 2012, TransUnion says.

But there’s still a long way to go. Even at a 5 percent rate forecasted for 2012, mortgage delinquencies will still be well above the pre-recession average of 1.5 to 2 percent, according to TransUnion.

"We have a long way to go to get back," Steven Chaouki, a TransUnion vice president, told the Associated Press.

Source: “Mortgage Delinquency to Drop Sharply in 2012, Report Says,” Associated Press (Dec. 7, 2011)

NAR Urges Reform of Mortgage Finance System

Reforming the secondary mortgage market is essential to ensuring a reliable source of mortgage lending for consumers in all types of markets and is integral to the nation’s economic and housing recovery, a representative of the National Association of REALTORS® said in testimony yesterday.

NAR’s 2012 Director of REALTOR® Party Activities Tom Salomone spoke before the House Financial Services Subcommittee on Capital Markets and Government-Sponsored Enterprises regarding proposed legislation by Rep. Scott Garrett (R-N.J.) to bring private capital back into the secondary mortgage market.

NAR believes that the concepts outlined in the draft legislation, the “Private Mortgage Market Investment Act,” could help create standards and uniformity, provide investors with greater transparency and ensure legal certainty regarding investors’ rights, which could help restore confidence and reignite the private label securities market. However, the long-term viability of the secondary mortgage market requires comprehensive reform.

“As the leading advocate for homeownership, NAR agrees with Rep. Garrett that greater transparency is needed in the trading of mortgage backed securities; however, to restore confidence in the market and ensure that the housing finance system works more efficiently and effectively in the future, this proposed legislation must be coupled with a comprehensive strategy for reforming the secondary mortgage market,” Salomone said.

NAR supports efforts to increase private capital in the housing finance market and reduce the size of the government’s involvement. Nonetheless, NAR believes that full privatization is not a viable option and that the federal government must have a continued role in the conventional conforming portion of the secondary mortgage market, beyond the Federal Housing Administration, to ensure a consistent flow of mortgage credit in all markets and all economic conditions.

Salomone testified that it’s critical that middle-class consumers have access to a steady flow of mortgage funding, especially during extreme economic conditions when private lenders have retreated from the marketplace. He said the housing market requires the participation of an entity that will remain active in the marketplace regardless of economic conditions.

“REALTORS® agree that a properly functioning housing finance market requires reducing the government’s participation and increasing private capital, but full privatization is not an effective option. Without some continued involvement by the federal government we risk losing affordable long-term, fixed-rate mortgage products. This would be devastating to middle-class home buyers and the housing market,” Salomone explained.

Source: NAR

Bill Seeks 1-Year Cap on Foreclosure Deficiencies

A bill introduced in the U.S. House of Representatives Tuesday aims to limit and standardize the timeframe that a mortgage company can go after a home owner following a foreclosure for a deficiency judgment.

Known as the Fairness in Foreclosures Act of 2011, H.R. 3566, the bill seeks a one-year cap on any deficiency judgment, except in states that already have shorter time limits already in place. The bill also proposes that mortgage lenders not be allowed to go after “low-income” borrowers for a deficiency judgment.

Deficiency judgments vary greatly by states. In some states, when a bank does not recover the money owed on the mortgage after a foreclosure or short sale, the bank may pursue the former home owners and require them to make up the loss. In some states, lenders can pursue borrowers for deficiency judgments up to six years after a foreclosure sale, HousingWire reports. Other states, such as California and Nevada, have banned deficiency judgments in some circumstances.

"A deficiency judgment after foreclosure seems to be one of the greatest injustices that occur to home owners after they have gone through the arduous foreclosure process," Rep. Edolphus “Ed” Towns, D-N.Y., who introduced the bill, said in a release. "Not only are they behind by thousands of dollars on their mortgage payments and facing public auction of their houses, the ordeal may continue indefinitely."

Source: “House Bill Proposes 1-Year Limit on Foreclosure Deficiencies,” HousingWire (Dec. 7, 2011) and “Rep. Town Introduces the Fairness in Foreclosure Act,” Congressman Ed Towns (Dec. 6, 2011)

Wednesday, December 7, 2011

Sellers Overvalue Their Home’s Worth, Study Finds

About 76 percent of home owners believe their home is worth more than their agent’s recommended listing price -- that’s up from 73 percent last year, according to a new survey conducted by HomeGain of real estate professionals and home owners.

On the other hand, 68 percent of home buyers say homes are overpriced, with 32 percent saying homes are overpriced by more than 10 percent.
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“Home buyers and sellers continue to remain apart as to home valuations with the vast majority of home owners thinking their homes are worth more than their agents and the market are telling them,” Louis Cammarosano, general manager of HomeGain said in a statement.

Source: “Three Quarters of Owners Continue to Overvalue,” RISMedia (Dec. 6, 2011)

Calm Before the Storm: CMBS Delinquency Rate Retreats

The delinquency rate for loans held in U.S. commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS) fell 26 basis points to 9.51 percent in November, according to Trepp, LLC.

That’s the second biggest decline recorded by the New York-based research firm in 2011, surpassed only by August’s 36 point drop. The rate has now fallen in four of the 11 months of 2011.
The value of delinquent CMBS loans is now $58.5 billion by Trepp’s calculations.
Recent declines in CMBS delinquencies, however, likely aren’t the makings of a trend, according to Trepp’s analysts.
The delinquency rate is expected to rise in coming months as the 2007 vintage loans that were originated under the
weakest underwriting standards start to reach their five-year balloon maturity dates. This will add to the stress that is being put on the delinquency rate by the slow-down in CMBS issuance, Trepp explained.
“It is quite possible that this will represent the best reading for a while,” said Manus Clancy, senior managing director of Trepp. “With the first of the dreaded 2007 vintage loans starting to mature, severe upward pressure will be put on the rate over the next few months.”
Clancy went on to explain, “Even if the 2007 vintage is only ‘as bad’ as the 2006 vintage has been, the rate could easily go up 75 basis points. So for now, further improvements in the delinquency rate could be elusive.”
By property type, the hotel delinquency rate dropped 184 basis points to 12.28 percent during the month of November.
The industrial delinquency rate jumped 61 basis points to 12.20 percent, threatening to pass lodging as the second worst performing property type.
The office delinquency rate was down 19 basis points, to 8.76 percent, while the multifamily delinquency rate dipped 55 basis points to remain the worst performing major property type with a rate of 16.18 percent.
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The retail delinquency rate tightened 9 basis points to 7.52 percent, remaining the best major property type.

Market Analysis Must Be Granular to Be Relevan

Home price predictions have traditionally been fairly straightforward, relying heavily on employment and income levels, according to Michael Sklarz, president of Collateral Analytics. However, the last cycle has posed challenges for analysts, Sklarz said during a panel at the Five Star MPact Mortgage Conference and Expo in Dallas, Texas Tuesday.

For example, one of the leading market indicators throughout the housing crisis has been foreclosure sales, which rise and fall at the inverse of home prices.
Another indicator throughout the past few years has been the ratio of sales price to listing price.
However, despite the best indicators and the best analytic data, national predictors – even if accurate – may not be relevant on a local basis.
During the discussion, Alex Villacorta, director of research and analytics at Clear Capital, used Phoenix as an example to show how much variation exists from market to market, and ZIP code to ZIP code.
Currently, Clear Capital predicts prices in Phoenix will remain relatively flat, falling just 3 percent. However, the analytics company predicts one Phoenix ZIP code will see a 17 percent decline, while a neighboring ZIP code will see a 34 percent rise in prices.
Another indicator, according to Thomas J. Healy, president and CEO of Level 1 Loans, Inc., is the ratio of median real estate value to median income.
Prior to the crisis, some ZIP codes were at 8.9, while others were at 1.5, according to Healy, reiterating the importance of granular data as opposed to national or regional data.
A ratio of about 3 or 3.5 is sustainable, according to Healy, and most markets that experienced a sharp rise during the bubble are now falling back to these levels.
At his keynote presentation at MPact Tuesday morning, Doug Duncan, chief economist at Fannie Mae, said we are now at the “new normal.”
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Healy agrees. “There will be no rebound,” he said during the panel discussion. “We’re pretty much where we should have been at the entire time,” had the crisis not occurred, he said.
(Note: The Five Star Institute is the parent company of DSNews.com and DS News magazine.)