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Falling Foreclosures Pushing Up Home Prices

As foreclosure backlogs have decreased, so have many of the big discounts on home prices. The slowdown in foreclosures is partially behind the recent rise in home prices, some economists say. “Deeply discounted existing homes have been subject to strong demand from cash buyers and investors looking to lock into housing’s attractive income returns,” says Paul Diggle, a housing economist at Capital Economics. “The supply of such homes, meanwhile, has been dwindling. Search bayside ny real estate

That has bid up existing house prices, particularly at the lower end of the price spectrum." The median price of existing homes nationwide was 9.5 higher in August compared to a year ago, and new home prices were up 17 percent in that same time period. Distressed properties typically sell for big discounts. For example, in 2007 during a nationwide foreclosure surge, foreclosures tended to sell for about a third of the median price of the home. Search bayside ny real estate

The housing markets with some of the largest price falls tended to have the highest number of distressed home sales. Lately, foreclosures have been posting big drops. Last month, new foreclosure filings reached a five-year low, according to RealtyTrac, a real estate research firm that tracks foreclosure housing data. “There is a shortage of inventory — as crazy as it sounds to say that,” says Daren Blomquist, a RealtyTrac spokesman. “In a lot of market there's less inventory of foreclosed properties than there is demand. You’re hearing about multiple bids for these properties.” Source: “Foreclosure Slowdown Pushing Home Prices Higher,” NBC News (Oct. 11, 2012)

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Foreclosure Scams on the Rise

The number of foreclosure-rescue scams are on the rise and will likely exceed 2011 numbers, according to the Treasury Department’s Financial Crimes Enforcement Network. These scams target struggling home owners and these so-called rescuers promise they will save the home owner from foreclosure by negotiating — for a fee — a loan modification on their behalf or selling their home to investors. In some cases, the home owner not only loses money as a result of these schemes but also the title to their home, FinCen reports. Searh Bayside NY Real Estate

FinCen announced that foreclosure-related scams will likely exceed the 2,782 reported in all of 2011. In just the first half of 2012, 2,360 foreclosure-related scams had already been reported.Bayside NY Real Estate

FinCen officials suspect that a growing public awareness of foreclosure scams is what’s behind the increase in reporting. Bayside NY Real Estate

The Department of Justice announced this week a crackdown on foreclosure-rescue scams with the arrest of more than 500 people accused of conducting such scams, allegedly leading to about $1 billion in losses. Bayside NY Real Estate

While the number of foreclosure scams is on the rise, overall mortgage fraud is falling, dropping 41 percent at the beginning of this year compared to 2011, FinCen reports. Bayside NY Real Estate

Source: “Foreclosure-Rescue Scams on the Rise: FinCen,” HousingWire (Oct. 9, 2012)

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Sales are quickening their pace as the time to sell a home decreases and falls more in line with a “balanced” housing market, according to new research by the National Association of REALTORS®.

The median time a home listed for sale was on the market in July was 69 days, down from 98 days one year earlier. Broken down further, one-third of homes purchased in July were on the market for less than a month, and one in five of homes purchased in July were on the market for at least six months.

“As inventory has tightened homes have been selling more quickly,” says Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist. “A notable shortening of time-on-market began this spring, and this has created a general balance between home buyers and sellers in much of the country. This equilibrium is supporting sustained price growth, and homes that are correctly priced tend to sell quickly, while those that aren’t often languish on the market.”

By the end July, a 6.4-month supply of homes were on the market at the current sales pace. That is 31.2 percent below year-ago levels, when there was a 9.3-month supply.

With supplies of homes tighter, economists expect home prices to continue their trend upward.

“Our current forecast is for the median existing home price to rise 4.5 to 5 percent this year and about 5 percent in 2013, which is somewhat stronger than historic norms because of the inventory shortfall that is most pronounced in the low price ranges,” Yun says.

Source: National Association of REALTORS®

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With short sales, home owners work with a bank on a solution to get out of a house they may no longer be able to afford or have to sell urgently for some reason. That’s why some argue short sales shouldn’t damage a person’s credit score in the same way as foreclosures, which can be much more costly for banks.

So should the penalty for a foreclosure more severely damage a borrower’s credit score than a short sale? No, maintains a new FICO study.

FICO conducted a study to determine the credit risk associated with “mortgage stress events,” such as foreclosures and short sales, by analyzing data from October 2009 to October 2011.

“While it is true that short sales represent slightly better risk than foreclosures, they do not perform well enough to merit a more positive treatment in the FICO Score,” according to a recent blog post on the FICO Web site.

The blog post goes on to explain that one out of every two borrowers who undergo a short sale go on to default on another account within two years. Also, according to researchers, an overwhelming majority of borrowers who went through a short sale also had some other mortgage delinquency in their credit history.

“From a weighting perspective, all these mortgage events – short sale, foreclosure, deed in lieu – fall into the same heavyweight class, because they correlate with exceptional riskiness,” the FICO blog post notes. “They aren’t alone in that class either. Based on the data, consumers with short sales perform no better than consumers who have a severe delinquency (90-plus days past due), a collection, or a derogatory public record (e.g., bankruptcy, tax lien, etc.) on file.”

Source: FICO Banking Analytics Blog

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Fixed-rate mortgages continued to hover near all-time lows, keeping home buyer affordability high.

Freddie Mac reports the following averages in this week’s mortgage market survey:

30-year fixed-rate mortgages: averaged 3.55 percent, with an average 0.7 point, dropping from last week’s 3.59 percent average. A year ago at this time, 30-year rates averaged 4.12 percent. 15-year fixed-rate mortgages: averaged 2.86 percent, with an average 0.6 point, holding steady from last week’s average. A year ago, 15-year rates averaged 3.33 percent. 5-year adjustable-rate mortgages: averaged 2.75 percent, with an average 0.7 point, dropping from last week’s 2.78 percent average. Last year at this time, 5-year ARMs averaged 2.96 percent. 1-year ARMs: averaged 2.61 percent, with an average 0.4 point, falling from last week’s 2.63 percent average. A year ago, 1-year ARMs averaged 2.84 percent.

Source: Freddie Mac

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