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Low Prices Changing New Home Market

The market for new homes is so weak that many builders aren’t building much of anything unless they have a signed contract.

Inventories are at 7.5 months, their lowest since 1992, according to the National Association of Home Builders.

Getting the market back to where it was before the meltdown may take years because prices continue to be so depressed by joblessness, says Mark Zandi, chief economist of Moody's Economy.com.

The new home market is likely to recover in two years, according to Jay Brinkmann, chief economist of the Mortgage Bankers Association. But even then custom homes may not be a big factor, says NAHB Chief Economist David Crowe, because prices are so low, builders won’t be able to afford to build them.

Source: The Wall Street Journal, June Fletcher (10/24/2009)

Goldman Sachs Predicts Further Declines

By slowing mortgage foreclosures and giving a first-time home buyer tax credit, the U.S. government has driven up home prices by 5 percent, investment bank Goldman Sachs said Friday in a market report.

Goldman believes these supports won’t keep home prices up forever. “The risk of renewed home-price declines remains significant,” wrote Goldman economist Alec Phillips, “and our working assumption is a further 5 percent to 10 percent decline by mid-2010.”

Source: The Wall Street Journal, James R. Hagerty (10/24/2009)

Tax Credit Extension Considered in Senate

Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, a Nevada Democrat, is supporting a four-month extension of the home buyer tax credit.

Two other proposals in the Senate would, respectively, extend the credit through June and, most generously, increase the deduction to $15,000 and open it up to all home buyers and those with higher incomes.

One or more of these proposals is likely to come up for a vote in the next week attached to a measure that would extend unemployment benefits for 20 weeks.

Source: The Wall Street Journal, Corey Boles (10/23/2009)

Report sees increase in Long Island home sales

More Long Island homes were sold in the past three months than in the same period last year, the first time that's happened in more than a year, according to third-quarter reports due out Thursday.

The 6,062 third-quarter sales added up to a 7.3 percent jump over the 5,647 deals a year ago and a 42 percent hike compared with the preceding quarter, according to data from Manhattan-based Miller Samuel appraiser in reports commissioned by Prudential Douglas Elliman Real Estate.

Jonathan Miller, head of the appraisal firm, and real estate veterans Wednesday saw several factors beefing up the housing market: more stability on Wall Street, a big factor in Hamptons sales; budding consumer confidence; a first-time home buyers tax credit; historically low mortgage rates; and more affordable listing prices.

However, Miller cautioned: "The surge, while an important sign, is sort of a catch-up. We had low activity prior to that, and this is simply a release."

Lately, sales figures have become more important than median closing prices in forecasting the housing market's direction. If more and more homes sell in the next few quarters, that lowers inventory, which then drives up prices.

In the past three months, Long Island median closing prices began recovering from the preceding quarter, which showed some of the sharpest drops in years, Miller's data show.

The median for Nassau and western Suffolk was $375,000, a 9.6 percent drop from the $415,000 a year ago but a 4.2 percent increase from the $360,000 in the preceding quarter, according to the third-quarter reports. For the Hamptons and North Fork, the $700,000 median was a 4 percent drop from the $729,000 a year ago but a 2.9 percent uptick from the preceding quarter's $680,000, figures show.

Despite recent talk about Wall Street bonuses returning to record levels, Jay Flagg, senior managing director at Prudential'sSouthampton office, said that hasn't had much impact in Hamptons deals.

Flagg said he's seen the Hamptons-buying pool change from being dominated by investment bankers to consultants, investors and celebrities, all drawn to lower prices.

"Our very high end is still not robust at this point," he said. I think I can count on two hands the number of sales in Southampton Village over $5 million - two hands and one foot probably," Flagg said. "In 2007, we probably had two or three a month of $5 million and above."

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Saturday, October 31, 2009

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